交易員們?cè)谟蛢r(jià)反彈上押下重注

據(jù)今日油價(jià)4月28日，路透社John Kemp周一表示，全球石油儲(chǔ)備空間不足，產(chǎn)量下降速度不夠快，但上周對(duì)沖基金購(gòu)買(mǎi)的WTI合約數(shù)量創(chuàng)下紀(jì)錄。上周的原油期貨購(gòu)買(mǎi)量為1.22億桶，至少是去年12月以來(lái)的最高水平。Kemp表示，市場(chǎng)對(duì)油價(jià)反彈的預(yù)期促使購(gòu)買(mǎi)量增加。盡管沒(méi)有跡象表明這種跡象一定會(huì)出現(xiàn)，但買(mǎi)家必須要做好這種反彈很快發(fā)生的準(zhǔn)備。相反，最新的價(jià)格走勢(shì)表明情況恰恰相反。周一，西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油價(jià)格下跌了25%，至每桶13美元以下，周二在亞洲交易中繼續(xù)下跌，跌破每桶11美元。

美國(guó)石油基金昨日表示，將在4天內(nèi)出售所有6月份交割的石油期貨。這與西德克薩斯中質(zhì)油價(jià)格下跌有很大關(guān)系，也與人們對(duì)石油儲(chǔ)能不足日益增長(zhǎng)的擔(dān)憂(yōu)有很大關(guān)系——這種擔(dān)憂(yōu)上周并沒(méi)有困擾到對(duì)沖基金和其他做市商。然而，本周他們可能會(huì)改變想法。

高盛(Goldman Sachs)昨日成為最新一家加入日益增多的石油儲(chǔ)備末日預(yù)言者行列的公司。這家投資銀行表示，全球的存儲(chǔ)能力可能在短短三周內(nèi)達(dá)到極限。該行分析師在一份報(bào)告中表示，這將加劇市場(chǎng)的波動(dòng)性，并使波動(dòng)性保持在高位，直到供需重新平衡。要想達(dá)到市場(chǎng)供需平衡，高盛預(yù)計(jì)下個(gè)月石油日產(chǎn)量需再減少1800萬(wàn)桶。

根據(jù)國(guó)際能源署(IEA) 4月份的估計(jì)，新增的每日1800萬(wàn)桶石油需求是在總需求減少2900萬(wàn)桶的基礎(chǔ)上增加的。

除了歐佩克下個(gè)月將開(kāi)始的970萬(wàn)桶/天的減產(chǎn)外，美國(guó)石油日產(chǎn)量還減少了約60萬(wàn)桶/天，加拿大已將石油日產(chǎn)量削減了30萬(wàn)桶。據(jù)路透社報(bào)道，巴西已將日產(chǎn)量削減了20萬(wàn)桶。盡管未來(lái)幾周美國(guó)減產(chǎn)速度可能加快，但可能為時(shí)已晚。

據(jù)《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》報(bào)道，大宗商品分析公司Kayrros的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，全球石油日產(chǎn)量為1000萬(wàn)桶。該公司的首席分析師安托萬(wàn)·哈爾夫(Antoine Halff)稱(chēng)這個(gè)速度是可怕的，并警告說(shuō)，如果這個(gè)速度繼續(xù)保持下去，三個(gè)多月后存儲(chǔ)就會(huì)達(dá)到極限。

Kayrro產(chǎn)品經(jīng)理奧古斯汀?普拉特表示，對(duì)石油行業(yè)來(lái)說(shuō)，幸運(yùn)的是，石油行業(yè)的新增產(chǎn)量已經(jīng)有所下降。

美國(guó)石油儲(chǔ)存空間幾乎已經(jīng)將要耗盡，所以任何需求的改善都是值得慶祝的。庫(kù)欣是美國(guó)最大的石油儲(chǔ)備基地，上周庫(kù)存增加了10%，達(dá)到5970萬(wàn)桶。這僅比峰值低了2500萬(wàn)桶，聽(tīng)起來(lái)可能很多。但如果增加的速度繼續(xù)保持下去，情況就不一樣了。

企業(yè)產(chǎn)品合作伙伴公司（Enterprise Products Partners）本月早些時(shí)候在其向北的海運(yùn)管道中為生產(chǎn)商提供了產(chǎn)能，使那些難以將石油存放在墨西哥灣附近的美國(guó)石油生產(chǎn)商能夠?qū)⑹瓦\(yùn)往庫(kù)欣的存儲(chǔ)中心。

對(duì)于生產(chǎn)者和看漲的對(duì)沖基金來(lái)說(shuō)，最主要的問(wèn)題在于沒(méi)有一個(gè)快速的方法來(lái)解決儲(chǔ)存問(wèn)題。關(guān)閉油井需要時(shí)間，甚至將油井廢棄也需要時(shí)間。據(jù)報(bào)道，一些俄羅斯生產(chǎn)商正在考慮將油井廢棄作為快速減產(chǎn)的一種方式。

這是許多小型石油生產(chǎn)商的破產(chǎn)正在發(fā)生，這也意味著產(chǎn)量將持續(xù)下降，這對(duì)多頭來(lái)說(shuō)是個(gè)好消息。問(wèn)題是這種下降是否會(huì)很快發(fā)生，就目前而言，這是極不可能的，因此當(dāng)下一個(gè)近月石油合約即將到期時(shí)，我們可能會(huì)看到另一輪大規(guī)模拋售。

洪偉立 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

Traders Are Betting Big On An Oil Price Rebound

Global oil storage space is running low, production is not falling quickly enough, and yet last week hedge funds bought a record amount of WTI contracts, Reuters’ John Kemp said Monday. At the equivalent of 122 million barrels, the amount of crude futures purchased last week was the highest since at least last December. According to Kemp, the reason for the increased buying is an expectation of an oil price rebound. The buyers must expect this rebound to take place soon, even though there are no indications to support such an attitude. On the contrary, the latest price moves suggest the opposite. On Monday, West Texas Intermediate dropped by 25 percent to less than $13 a barrel and continued falling on Tuesday in Asian trading, sinking below $11 a barrel.

The United States Oil Fund said yesterday that it would sell all its oil futures for June delivery within four days. That had a lot to do with the drop in WTI prices, and it also had a lot to do with the growing worry about storage space – a worry that did not bother hedge funds and other market-making buyers last week. It may change their mind this week, however.

Goldman Sachs yesterday became the latest to join the rising number of oil storage doomsayers. The investment bank said that the world’s storage capacity could reach its limit within just three weeks. This, the bank’s analysts said in a note, would heighten volatility and keep it high until supply and demand rebalances. For this to happen, supply needs to decline by another 18 million bpd next month, as this is the size of demand loss that Goldman expects.

That is much easier said than done, because those additional 18 million barrels per day comes on the heels of a demand loss totaling 29 million bpd, according to International Energy Agency estimates for April.

In addition to the 9.7 million bpd in OPEC+ cuts that should begin next month, U.S. production has fallen by some 600,000 bpd and counting, and Canada has slashed its oil production by 300,000 bpd. Brazil has cut 200,000 bpd off its daily average, Reuters reports.

This is barely above 1 million bpd in production cuts outside OPEC+. While the chances are that U.S. production cuts will likely accelerate in the coming weeks as companies rush to shut in the wells that produce oil at rates higher than the selling price, it may be too little too late.

Global oil storage is filling at a rate of 10 million bpd, according to data from commodities analysis firm Kayrros, reported by the Wall Street Journal. The firm’s chief analyst Antoine Halff called this rate monstrous and warned that if it continues unabated, storage would be full in a little over three months.

Luckily for the industry, the rate of additions has slowed down a bit, Kayrros product manager Augustin Prate told Oilprice.

“Crude demand in China has almost fully recovered, with refinery runs back to pre-lockdown levels,” Prate said.

The United States is among the places where storage space is already tight, so any improvement in demand would be a cause for celebration. Cushing, the country’s largest oil storage complex, added 10 percent last week, to 59.7 million barrels. This is 25 million barrels below maximum capacity, which may sound like a lot. It isn’t if the rate of addition continues.

Enterprise Products Partners earlier this month offered producers space in its northbound Seaway pipeline, providing U.S. oil producers struggling to place their oil near the Gulf Coast the ability to ship their barrels to the storage hub at Cushing.

The problem—for producers and bullish hedge funds alike—is that there isn’t a quick solution to the storage problem. Shutting in wells takes time and even setting wells on fire—which some Russian producers are reportedly considering as one way to reduce output quickly—takes time.

This is time that many smaller oil producers don’t have, so bankruptcies are on the way. This would mean a more lasting decline in production, which is good news for bulls. The question remains whether this decline will happen soon enough. For now, this is highly unlikely, so we may see another massive selloff when the next front-month oil contract nears expiry.